Ah, conventional wisdom. That wonderful tool of pragmatism used by those who wish to read our national political tea leaves. Personally, I only do divination though the bottom of a martini glass. I get a sharper image that way. Kinda like HDTV. Go Figure? Be it tea or tequila, there is a problem with conventional wisdom. It's usually wrong.
I know what you're saying. That doesn't make any sense. But heck, since when do people--or politicians for that matter--make a lick of sense?
Boi from Troy writes an interesting bit on his blog regarding the current troubled state of the Giuliani campaign. He argues that Giuliani is sacrificing his electability by appealing to the ideological base of the Republican Party.
I think this is only half right. The ideological drift is a perennial event in presidential campaigns. You secure your base during the primary and then expand for the general election. To win the GOP nomination the conservative wing, which is the largest, of the the party must believe their needs will be addressed.
In the pre-dawn stages of the campaign both Giuliani and Clinton had the kind of political gold money can't buy: name recognition. Let's face it most of the nation is sane enough not to obsess about political campaigns until their are nearly ready to vote. Much of the polling data we've seen has been more about name recognition than a decision based upon policy issues.
That has changed. We're at the stage of the game where the bulk of the voters have become engaged. As they evaluate the candidates more closely the earlier boosts start to erode. Think back to the earlier primaries in 2000 between Bush and McCain for example.
I believe Giuliani to be a good man, and, should he win the nomination, I would be happy to support him. However, there is too great an ideological rift between us for me to support him during the primary. Nor do I believe that he is the most electable candidate in the GOP field in a general election.
Conventional wisdom will continue to try and forecast the future. Why not, it's fun and it keeps wise men out of trouble. While nowhere in my worst screaming nightmare do I see Huckabee winning the nomination; anything can happen in politics, and usually does.
